Pakistan: The Beginning of the Storm

Pakistan: The Beginning of the Storm

By S.M. Hussain

01/01/07 "GrandeStrategy " -- -- There has been much analysis and discussion of what is happening in the global war between Islam and the West. Clear analysis somehow seems missing in the mainstream media, or even amongst well regarded analysts and think tanks. For one, we can only see the views and propaganda of one side of the battle taking place in Pakistan. Further, the issues run so deep and touch us so close, that it becomes hard to think and discuss them without being emotionally involved.

At GrandeStrategy, we believe that the fundamental battle taking place in Pakistan is between the secular and western-based educated pro-American elites, against the Islam-championing hard core religious types. The former we shall here on refer to as the Secular Pakistanis, while the latter we shall represent as the Islamist Pakistanis, merely to ease the writing of this article, not to imply any deeper meaning, as to what "Islamists" are or what represents "Secular".

To get deeper into this problem, let us start by looking at the fundamentals within a Marxist analysis. The constituencies that the Secular Pakistanis are rooted in are the upper classes and the upper middle class, and represent the Bourgeoisie. This class has strong roots in Pakistan with the landed classes. At the risk of going-off at a tangent, I'll go deeper into the origins of this landed class. The landed classes in Pakistan go back in history to when the British Raj took over India. To exert control over the vast Subcontinent, the British came up with a plan to divide and rule India by creating a class of landowners, that would owe their position to the British. Thus they went about granting land and setting rules and guidelines to create this petite bourgeoisie. While in other parts of the Subcontinent, the power and influence of this class greatly diminished after partition, in Pakistan, this class not only managed to maintain its power base but to expand it, to the point that they became the new bourgeoisie. While new power groups emerged, such as the industrial class, expatriate Pakistanis, corrupt wealth accumulators and the elite of the armed forces, these groups soon became assimilated to this now thriving elite "melting pot".

These families together represent the heart of Pakistan's ruling class. It may be instructive to paint a typical picture of such a family - education begins at English language schools, graduating with British qualifications such as O Levels and A Levels. Thereafter, one can go off to college abroad or at a top local university. Families usually have at least some relatives living abroad. Career choices include the armed forces, good civilian jobs at top organizations (gotten through family connections), running the family business or pursuing almost any career abroad. Marriage is typically arranged and one favorable choice is within the extended family. Often they marry their own cousins. However, other families of a similar status are also common matchmaker potential.

The Islamist Pakistanis have their roots in the lower and lower middle class of Pakistan. With Pakistan's rapid Malthusian population growth, these classes have expanded faster than it has been possible for the government to adequately support them. These people live hard working lives, at best being able to afford motorcycles. They live from day to day and find life to be an endless struggle. These people by and large do not care about political parties, instinctively knowing that these are but instruments of the elite. They know that their is no real rule of law, that police are their to rob them and that any member of the elite can easily get away by paying off a judge or the policeman. When they manage to go abroad, typically to the Gulf states, they go as modern indentured servants.

These classes typically come from disadvantaged families that either get their eduction through Islamic schools called madrassas or through government run schools. Those that make it, can hope to reach financial advantage either through business, through joining the civil service and gaining wealth through corruption, going abroad (but here as low cost slave-labor, particularly to Arab states) and joining the military.

With the hard economic conditions of the 1990s and the radicalization of the madrassas, these classes have been a steady source of men, materials and financing for the extremists. Many amongst these classes have their sympathies and loyalties with these extremists. Many revere OBL as a savior, and this is reflected in the name Ossama becoming the most popular baby name in Pakistan after the 9/11 attacks. Success of the Islamist Pakistanis thus far is a direct result of being able to channel their anger against the elite, linking the latter to the West's anti-Islam crusade. With no real political channel to bring their boiling anger out, their only channel becomes the Islamist Pakistanis.

Further, the open pro-western stance of the establishment, clampdown on any form of serious dissent, the black and white manner in which the US has come out against Islam, all have colluded to bring matters to a boiling point.

The Secular Pakistanis have not had this level of success with their constituency. Many of their own children, particularly those in their 20s, and a good portion of all ages that have lived abroad, have become increasingly pro-Islam and anti-West. This is the critical problem that could eventually lead to the collapse of the established elite in Pakistan. Within them, the two groups mentioned, the local college-aged pro-Islamist group and the expatriate pro-Islamists need to be analyzed more closely.

The College-Aged Pro-Islamists represent a thorny quandary for the established elite. The problem results from the clear anti-Islam crusade that the US is conducting, their just isn't any ambiguity left to argue against. Further, the establishment has done a poor job in its propaganda, in appropriately socializing their own progeny. Open access to information via the internet has also played a role. The main political outlet for this group are college campuses. With the government crackdown (backed by ISI) of the college campuses, it remains to be seen if this group can reinvent itself elsewhere. For the Islamist Pakistanis, if this group builds an active alliance and joins with the hard-core militant extremists, then it could very well spell the end of Pakistan as Secular Pakistan has known it. However, the likelihood of this happening is less, given that these westernized progeny has as little in common with the militant extremists as Shanghai Chinese would have with a Redneck America.

The expatriate community is another important piece in the chess board. One characteristic is that the expat community is truly radicalized: while in Pakistan proper we find the overwhelming majority of the people somewhere inbetween the two wider positions, the expat Pakistani community is either strongly secular or strongly Islamist. The key problem for the establishment however, is that the Secular expats want to distance themselves and assimilate into their Western hosts while the increasing number is Islamists are rallying and going back in large numbers. They are also better organized and better connected, and perhaps even have more resources backing them up. This group has had a huge hand in the economic prosperity Pakistan has seen post 9/11, as they have brought back skills, money and key contacts to establish marketing channels. If ever the Islamist Pakistanis can unite as a whole, it would be under their banner.

The Pakistan Army is the central institution that runs the country, whether there is a democratic government or not. Militarily, the Pakistan army is well trained and seasoned, adequately armed and excellent at smaller unit combat. At full theater combat Pakistan, like India have developed a mental block. This stems (for both Pakistan and India), perhaps to the fact that the generals are not well trained in their art. Since in British India, the British took the higher positions, their is a deep grained mental block in thinking strategically, and going through with wider plans. The comedy of errors during 1965 is an able testament to this. The 1971 strategy of regional commands was a glaring red light. Further, with the involvement of the Pakistan army in politics and country running, these generals have become corrupt and this has further deteriorated their prowess. The Pakistan Army also breeds linear thinkers. Anybody who has been in close association with the Pakistan Army knows the specific setting they have and the manner in which the specific manner in which they think. Hierarchy and rank are also very important.

The Pakistan army further suffers from insidious inside politics, and with Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq and now Musharraf, this level of politicization has only gone up. General Kiyani's attempt seems to be to somehow rectify this, how far he will be successful in doing so is yet to be seen. Jehangir Karamat's attempt had for some time really helped stall this slide but with Musharraf this has become much worse.

One of the key mistakes that Musharraf made post 9/11 and after joining the US has been within the Pakistan Army. There was huge outrage within the Pakistan Army, and this included many officers, including General Usmani, the man who saved Musharraf's life when he took control of the civilian airport he was being denied landing to during the fiasco with Nawaz Sharif. Musharraf chose to eliminate this opposition by removing "Islamic" style officers, stereotypically "officers with beards". This was a huge move and surprisingly did not receive a lot of media attention, because a significant number of officers where removed. Unfortunately for the Pakistan Army, these were some of the very best men in the Army, some of the most sincere, hardworking and well-trained officers. For many of the other soldiers in the army, this really threw their morale out the window, particularly since they have, ever since joining the army, been told that they have been fighting a "jihad" against India. (This author has literally spent time arguing with a Pakistani soldier who he at length couldn't convince to the contrary, a few years before 9/11).

What has really gone under the radar is that many of these officers, particularly those from the NWFP, have since leaving the army, found their way to the tribal belts, and have joined the rebellion there. If one analyzes the tactics and organization of the Pakistani Taliban, they seem to be somehow differently organized to the Afghan Taliban, even though they are the same force, literally. This, in our opinion, is as a result of the profusion of these Pakistani officers, who have really helped in taking the Taliban organizationally to the next level. This has been one of the factors why the Pakistani Taliban have faired so well in recent years. The tactical retreat from Swat, while a political loss, was also extremely well executed.

With the death of Benazir, the Secular Pakistanis are in disarray, and their allies in Western capitals are in a state of panic. Benazir was the Queen on the chess board for the Western / Secular side. The Pakistan army is in disarray and fraught with internal issues, with their noses too far into Politics. At the same time, rumors are rife of an internal revolt within the army, under apparently a 3 star general. Desertion to the Pakistani Taliban has also become an increasingly steady flow. At Pakdef, the premier forum to gage the pulse of the establishment, members seem less sure of themselves, and somehow have lost those smug comments about how they will crush the tribal belt.

Yet, even with all this, the sheer power of the Pakistani establishment is hard to match for the aspiring Islamist Pakistanis. And even if all else gives way, they still have to contend with General Kiyani, and this gentleman has the brains and conviction to change the face of the game. What will his next move be? Nobody really knows, but the ball is in his (and Musharraf's) court.

S.M. Hussain - m.hussain'at'grandestrategy.com

have read and agree to comments policy as posted here www.informationclearinghouse.info/c1.htm

Yeah, the Secular/Islamist divide creation myth. Typical imperialist propaganda piece. This is basically a Western war against the Pakistani people designed to break up their nation into more manageable parts for the benefit of Western resource companies (primarily oil). These might help:

The plan to topple Pakistan's military?
by Ahmed Quraishi
http://www.globalresearch.ca/ind...ext=va& aid=7709

The Destabilization of Pakistan
by Prof. Michel Chossudovsky
http://www.globalresearch.ca/ind...ext=va& aid=7705

The Islamist/Secularist split is being promoted in Turkey by Western shills as well.

The use of Religion or Ethnic groups to promote imperialist divide and rule has been done before.
Blue | 01.01.08 - 2:21 pm | #

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The less educated class gravitate to religion in all countries. It works to their own detriment and often to the detriment of the upper class as well when religionists justify violence with religion. It's just as easy for a poor person to interpret what god wants as it is for a rich person.
Anonymous | 01.01.08 - 3:27 pm | #

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Firstly, the previous comment seems to throw out the baby with the bathwater. Yes, of course the theme of secular versus Islamist has been, and will continue to be exploited. That doesn't invalidate the very succinct and comprehensive historical analysis by Mr. Hussain. The British imperial legacy from the 19th century, in terms of historical consequences everywhere in the Middle East and Central Asia, haunts 21st century geopolitics.

A minor linguistic nit pick with the article, some spell checker has allowed "their" to appear multiple times when "there" was intended. There are a few other editorial slips, which in no way detract from the flow of the ideas. Thank you Mr. Hussain, from a remote American internet and alternate news reader.
Albert Krauss | 01.01.08 - 3:29 pm | #

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The author has a good handle on the goings on in Pakistan.

Musharraf's days are numbered.

The future is uncertain and unpredicatable.
Derek | 01.01.08 - 3:40 pm | #

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We always back the 'Dictator' that will do our bidding! Saddam, Noriega etc.
Bob Egan | 01.01.08 - 4:11 pm | #

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Poor Sheep.. Here are some facts

IPI gas pipeline should start soon: Musharraf
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.c...how/ 1570652.cms

U.S. Stands in the Way of International Pipeline Deal
http://www.alternet.org/audits/65315/

US opposes IPI gas pipeline project
http://www.paktribune.com/news/i...ex.shtml? 167299

Most American's don't understand the Pakistan elections or political motivation. The Z's want the TAP project. New Puppets are the propaganda tool. Follow the money trail. Cui bono.. is the question to ask. Its not Pakistan, US is Brokering Gas/Oil deals around UN Iran Sanctions. Use common sense. The so called US diplomat is a deer standing in headlights. The pipeline contracts have been signed. Placing a puppet government to reverse deal will become choas. Markets will suffer.

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Pakistan: Follow the Pipelines
http://securingamerica.com/ccn/n.../ccn/node/ 14247

Iran, Malaysia sign $16B gas deal
http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/26/ ...sion=2007122611


Its the US & Israel playing tricks on you again. Copy and save this. When crude goes up, you will have proof to reasons why.
. | 01.01.08 - 6:21 pm | #

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Text of fax broadcast:

BHUTTO TOLD FROST THAT OSAMA BIN LADEN IS DEAD. DID THAT GET HER KILLED?

NEW YORK, NEW YORK * 30 DECEMBER 2007 Citizen of the USA Stephen M. St. John addresses the international community in Washington and here in New York City, all members of the US Congress as well as other organizations and individuals, public and private, and, in condoling with the people of Pakistan over the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, and in searching with them for the truth of how and why and by whom she was killed, points to her earthshaking statement during an interview with David Frost two weeks after her triumphant return to Pakistan on 18 October 2007. Bhutto's return to the acclaim of 3 million devotees was marred by an attempt on her life that killed 158 people near her, and two weeks later she appeared on the TV program Frost Over the World and endeavored to satisfy Frost's curiosity as to who would want to kill her by referring to three individuals, one of them "a very key figure in security" who she claimed had "had dealings with Omar Shaikh, the man who murdered Osama Bin Laden"! With typical British sangfroid, Frost showed no reaction to this bombshell statement and steered away from the topic of Bin Laden's death. (See http://www.brasschecktv.com/page...m/page/ 242.html at the 6 minute, 13 second mark.) Bhutto added that she had conveyed to Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf the names of the three individuals who she believed were ready, willing and able to stop her by causing internal security to turn a "blind eye" in collusion with unnamed supporters, organizers and financiers. Who are they? Were they unnerved by Bhutto's revelation of Bin Laden's death? After all, Bhutto's announcement of Bin Laden's death dovetails nicely with the widespread belief of experts that his videotaped messages are all fake. This in turn jibes well with Winston Churchill's dictum, "In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies"; and the truth is, a suppository-sized statue of Churchill stands on George W. Bush's desk in the Oval Office to remind him! More ominously, Bhutto's statement that Osama Bin Laden is dead was followed within weeks by John Negroponte's visit to Pakistan, ostensibly to impress on Musharraf the need to let democracy flower and military dictatorship recede; but where Negroponte goes, there are death squads commencing operations, as in El Salvador and Iraq. Does a tiger change his stripes?

Stephen M. St. John
Post Office Box 449
Rockefeller Center
New York, New York 10185

http://www.show-the-house.com
Stephen M. St. John | Homepage | 01.01.08 - 6:44 pm | #

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Megalomania or Micromanagement?

@ Stephen M. St. John | Homepage | 01.01.08 - 6:44 pm | #

You mention a suppository-sized (!?) statue of
Churchill on Bush's desk. At the risk of being charged with indulging in idle curiosity, I wish to ask, what are the approximate dimensions of that, er, "statue" (cms, inches, etc)?
..............
DC | 01.01.08 - 8:30 pm | #

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Could that statue be a bougieman?
..........
DC | 01.01.08 - 8:33 pm | #

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Thanks Albert Krauss & Derek, you made it worth my writing it. I've fixed the errors that have been pointed out, but you can find the fixed version only at GrandeStrategy.

I'm quite surprised some here think my article is pro-West! I certainly am not!
S.M. Hussain | Homepage | 01.01.08 - 8:50 pm | #

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.

Thank you, the references were insightful.
.. | 01.01.08 - 9:27 pm | #

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Good article!

Whatever the future holds for Pakistan, I hope it breaks away from the yoke and grip of USA and the West. With friends like USA, who needs enemies?

I could never understand why many leaders of Muslim countries pay homage to USA. Pakistan is a nuclear country. Its leaders should be able to tell USA to get lost just as North Korea did and rubbed Bush's nose in dirt. Yet, many allow USA to control them. Muslim countries should unite and stand up against imperial aspirations of USA and its allies.
Veronica | 01.01.08 - 11:02 pm | #

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Veronica: I don't think Pakistan will escape because it will cease to exist. Free Baluchistan will be very U.S. friendly. The Pushtun might calm down when they are united. What will happen to what will be left of Pakistan I don't know. Iraq will be broken up too. Maybe it's good, maybe it's bad. Perhaps it would be better to start with new countries that encompass a people instead of the british-made mess that exists now. However, it is none of my business or that of the U.S.
lizard | 01.01.08 - 11:55 pm | #

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Veronica: The U.S. exerts influence by propping up the weak or illegitimate who then depend on them. The strong they assasinate. Like the mafia, there really isn't a choice. Having nuclear weapons doesn't make that kind of a difference.
lizard | 01.02.08 - 12:00 am | #

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to Albert Krauss,
Its an pro-impedialist/anti-imperialist split, not a secular/Islamist split. The latter is a myth, though stimulated by the West and their puppets abroad.

Even here in Turkey, the US has backed the "Islamists" in power, not the "secular" Kemalists because the military is Kemalist and the West wishes to denigrate this pro-Turkish institution.

Even when pro-American generals like Buyukanit are heading the armed forces, they still have the attitude that Turkish interests come first. This is anathema to the US who prefer politicians like the late World Bank employee Turgut Ozel in the eighties who equated Turkish interests with American interests.

Thus we have cries in the imperialist West (from the left and right) for the military to "get out of politics" and thus leave political decisions to American bought politicians, like Bhutto.
Blue | 01.02.08 - 1:38 am | #

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